EUPHORIA IN CONGRESS OVER EASY SAILING IN LOKSABHA VANISHING

EUPHORIA IN CONGRESS OVER EASY SAILING IN LOKSABHA VANISHING

Euphoria in Congress to sail through easily in the Lok Sabha on the trust vote is evaporating fast as the D-day comes closer. Congress President holding daily review meetings with the party leaders engagedin wooing individual MPs and smaller parties was quite upset over a senior leader pointing out that UPA's own number is dwindling faster than swelling from the new support gained.The UPA government's own strength in the 543-seat Lok Sabha is 226. The Congress managers have, however, put a question mark on 15 and they now admit that five more votes may have to be deducted if the presiding officer does not allow voting by the jailed MPs.PMK, led by Union Health Minister Ambumani Ramadoss, on Wednesday virtually put the Prime Minister on notice, not to count its six votes unless he pressurises Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi to setfree one of its MLA, Guru. The Tamil Nadu politics watchers say this is only a prelude to PMK drifting away to AIADMK of J Jayalalithaa.The same may happen with MDMK whose boss Vaiko has already announced to vote against the government in his run up to tying up with Jayalalithaa. He has four MPs in the Lok Sabha, but two of them have rebelled. These rebels have declared to vote for the government. So, Vaiko will be able to reduce the UPA strength by just two votes.The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha supremo Sibu Soren is also keeping the government on tenterhooks. He has five votes. Though his party is still a constituent of the UPA, he is threatening to walk out andalign with the BJP. He is negotiating simultaneously with both Congress and BJP. From Congress, he wants back the minister's post that was snatched away from him on a court sentencing him for murderof his secretary. He is bargaining with BJP to give him support to become the Jharkhand chief minister.Two others from the Congress camp whom the Congress review meeting on Wednesday ruled out to give support are suspended Haryana MP Kuldeep Bishnoi and 75-year old rebel Assam MP A F Golam Osmani. The party managers were told to explore if they abstain from voting to lessen the damage that will be caused if they vote against the confidence motion.If all these doubtful MPs are taken into account, the UPA's real strength on the D-day would slump from 226 to 211 and further drop to 206 if five jailed MPs are not allowed to vote. This will leave a widegap of 66 for the magic number to win the confidence vote.Those privy to the goings-on in 10 Janpath admit that the support gained from the Samajwadi Party and one mustered by pursuing smaller parties and individual MPs can not cover up this deficit. They,however, insist that the actual deficit, after counting all the support mustered todate, is just 12 votes. The party is cent per cent confident at this juncture to get 260 votes, they asserted.The Samajwadi Party has 39 MPs, but it has now dawned on the Congress that its leaders Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh cannot deliver all 39 votes. Two of its parliamentarians have already revolted anddeclared to vote against the government while some more may fall to the poaching by Bahujan Samaj Party, taking advantage of being in power in Uttar Pradesh.The Congress managers are, however, still hoping to scrape through. They are counting on the last minute decision by some of the parties in the Opposition to abstain as that would bring down the magic numberfor winning the vote and the UPA government will be in the advantageous position.As regards the smaller parties that these managers have been contracting, Janata Dal(S) MP Veerendra Kumar has already announced that he would vote against the government, leaving two other JanataDal(S) votes that will be decided by former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda only by Sunday. The Telengana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) having three votes, including one rebel, is demanding a Cabinet resolution by Friday for creation of a separate Telengana state carved out of Andhra Pradesh. Former Union Minister Ajit Singh, heading the 3-MP Rashtriya Lok Dal has pressed for a ministerial berth as a bargain to vote for the government. Even the one-MP parties are putting own demands in the bargain, the Congress sources said.Some of the top Congress leaders, including Union Ministers Pranab Mukherjee and hospitalised Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi, are still working on the Communists to persuade them not to bring down the government. They became active after the 95-year old CPI-M patriarch Jyoti Basu remarked that it would be a bad day for the left to be seen voting with the communal BJP to bring down the government.Though the Left parties have not yet shown any inclination for any kind of compromise as seen from the anti-government campaign it has launched since Monday, some of the CPI-M leaders in West Bengal havestarted criticising their party leadership for hobnobbing with the BJP after Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee chose to toe Jyoti Basu's line and opposed voting with the BJP.The 2-day central committee of the CPI(M) is meeting here from Saturday and there should be no surprise if General Secretary Prakash Karat, who has otherwise a majority in the politburo, is pulled up anda decision is taken that can become a saving grace for the ruling UPA.Ranged against the UPA are the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Left parties, Bahujan Samaj Party and the third front of UNPA. As of now the NDA is holding together, dashing the Congresshopes that the Akali Dal may be forced by the Sikh organisations in Punjab not to bring down a government led by a Sikh. Also dashed were hopes from Shiv Sena stating at one point that it supports the nuclear deal as it has too gone on record that its MPs would vote against the government.The trust vote has certainly triggered a dramatic re-alignment in Indian politics. For the first time ever, the left, practitioners of class politics, will join forces with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), whichbelieves in caste-based mobilisation. More ironic will be its joining hands with the BJP to bring down the government. Even the Congress-SP camaraderie is nothing more than a marriage of convenience, though itmay help them in Uttar Pradesh that sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha.